Climate change: not just a question of the past 15 years.

Recently, it has become fashionable to say that climate change is not a problem (or even that it doesn't exist) because the past 15 years haven't seen a heating of the atmosphere so fast as it used to be the rule. Well, climate change is not just a question of the past 15 years, as Steph explains here discussing the conditions of the Alps at the time of the Carthaginian General Hannibal (Image from AncientWeb.org)

The Alps over time: Hannibal

by Steph.

During the Second Punic War, in September 218, the Carthaginian general Hannibal crossed the Montgenevre pass on the Alps with 20,000 infantry, 6,000 cavalry and 21 elephants. Only half of the army that had started from Spain (90,000 infantry, 12,000 cavalry and 37 elephants) with the aim first to ally with the Gauls and then off to Italy to clash with the Roman armies. But Hannibal made an error of judgment because the Gallic tribes were generally hostile to him unless the king of the Boi, Magilo who helped him to cross the Alps. It was a grueling journey that took the lives of many soldiers. In addition the Carthaginians had to face the harsh winter of the Po Valley and according to Polybius only an elephant survived its rigors.

The Greek historian gives us his account of that event:

Troughout the lowland regions, Hannibal arrived at the foot of the Alps. At the front, there were the elephants (...) the enemies, who had never seen those animals, did not dare to approach. (...) When they reached the pass, Hannibal ordered a stop (...). At dawn (...) the march was resumed, but the descent proved more difficult than the ascent. During the night, snow had fallen and the column moved slowly. Down the steep trails, men and horses slid, falling over each other, barely restrained by shrubs and roots protruding here and there. The passage of so many men and animals turned into soft mush the thin layer of fresh snow, exposing the underlying ice (...).


In September, new snow on the ice below at 1800 m above sea level?? ... what year was this one that Hannibal chose? Where can you find, today, glaciers at 1800 m on the western Alps? Nowhere, I think.

In short: it is the curse of Ötzi (and not just that). The most recent reconstructions (see also here); less recent ones, and even Polybius, remind us that for more than 5000 years in the past the Alps never were so hot as they are today. Perhaps never so hot from the time of the last interglacial. Take into account the fact that the glaciers are not in equilibrium with current climate conditions and if they were, they would shrink even more: it's only a matter of decades.


So, if some people are so impressed that during the past 15 years the surface temperatures didn't rise so much, think of how much they changed from the times of Hannibal. And how much they still have to change in the future.

Here are some data about temperatures in the Alpine region in Europe

Büntgen et al. 2011

Büntgen et al. 2006

Signs of change: are you ready for the great transition?

Signs of change are accumulating, but most people still are not taking notice

By Alexander Ac

Is Homo sapiens a truly serious evolutionary project? And with that I mean sustainable, are we able to sustain  all what we have done and built; constructions, networks, and  knowledge into a (distant) future? Can we choose a dramatically different path that we are currently on?

There are many people thinking deeply and constantly about sustainability, global problems, overpopulation, deforestation, overfishing, soil erosion, air pollution... and on top of everything climate change; since it is a survival issue for our species. But the real question is not whether a certain number of people think about sustainability and try to live accordingly. The real question is whether we (will) do so collectively. In other words, it is not important what 50 000 people do for few hours per day (e.g. protesting Keystone pipeline), but important is what 7 billion people do for 365 days per year.

We can see that the great change from Hunters and gatherers to Agricultural societies was enabled by a stable local climate and predictable weather (and crop yields!) during the last 12 000 years. At the end of the last Ice Age, this planet was inhabited by not more than 20 000 people. We do not really want to leave the Holocene behind us.

Look carefully at the two following graphs:

Fig. 1.: The upper graph shows that we are rapidly leaving behind the Holocene temperatures. The lower graph shows that this Holocene period is exceptionally steady in the 100 000 years of temperature record from Central Greenland. Some people confuse it with global temperature record, which is not the case.


Now, the latest speech of president Obama might sound optimistic for some scientists, and even if the promises are fullfilled, which is highly questionable given the past, consider also the following graph:

Fig. 2. You do not need to be a mathematician, or to fit an exponential function to see that this rate of debt increase is not sustainable. Planet resources will not allow to repay all the debts we have created. Source: St Louis FED. Effect of planet Earth is added for illustrative purpose.

In the graph you can see the Total Credit Market Debt Owed in the USA. The same country in which Obama promised to (finally) solve climate crisis. This is not meant to criticise president Obama. This is to show what we are collectively doing. Everyone with a mortgage, or almost any other type debt is claiming exponentially growing demand on our finite planet resources. How is that compatible with declining carbon footprint?

Debt is basically a claim on the future (energy) resources. So if we are to repay ALL debts, we need to continue in the exponential growth. If we are not going to repay all debts, debt deflation is upon us. And hyperinflation later on. Well, its already happening, despite the ultra-loose monetary policy and "money-printing" (can-kicking experiments), which is in exact opposite to what needs to be done in order to solve climate change and other sustainability related problems. But you will not hear it from monetarists like Ben Bernanke or Paul Krugman.

Of course debt deflation means huge economic problems and social unrest. Again, this is already happening. But it is also a solution for the climate change problem. At least until it lasts. We need to get rid off bad debt, and use good debt to transition away from fossil fuels and climate chaos.

Are we ready for that?

As smart as a frog

h/t "Clima Fluttuante"

There is always a way

.... even in the most difficult situations, such as when fighting Catastrophic Climate Change.

h/t "Learning from Dogs"

Why coal has to go

Text originally published at Climate Spectator on 21st June 2013: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/climate"

By Ian Dunlop

Australia is belatedly waking up to the implications of the carbon budget, although the concept has been around for years. It simply says that if the increase in global temperature resulting from human carbon emissions is to be contained to a level which will prevent dangerous climate change, the world, henceforth, can only afford to emit a limited amount of greenhouse gases. According to the latest science, that limit will be exceeded if we burn more than 20 per cent of the world’s proven coal, oil and gas reserves. This is confirmed in recent reports from the International Energy Agency and Australia’s Climate Commission.

At current emission rates, the world budget runs out in 20 years, and the Australian budget, as one of the highest per capita carbon emitters, runs out in five years. Major coal companies, as members the IEA’s Energy Business Council , are well aware of these implications.

The carbon budget is the basis for current campaigns, led by organisations such as Greenpeace and Bill McKibben’s 350.org, to ensure that budget is not exceeded, in part by stopping the expansion of Australian coal exports,

Recently, the CEO of the Australian Coal Association, Dr Nikki Willliams, hit out at such “eco-activists” who are “ideologically driven to destroy Australia’s coal industry but have no technically and commercially reliable and affordable solution to global climate change,” going on to justify the continued expansion of the industry.

Subsequently, commenting on the Climate Commission’s latest report, Minerals Council CEO, Mitch Hooke, opined that the report, in “calling for an end to the Australian coal industry crosses the line from scientific analysis into environmental campaigning.”

Activists play a vital role in alerting society to critical issues which the establishment may wish to deliberately avoid. But in addition to activists, many more Australians are concerned about the need for serious action to address climate change. Thus the mining industry’s arguments warrant a wide response.

Any balanced risk assessment of the latest climate science and the evidence of warming around the world, would accept that events are accelerating far faster than anticipated. There is now a high risk that our inaction today is locking in catastrophic outcomes; the challenge is far greater and more urgent than is acknowledged officially.

Evidence of climate change and accelerating extreme weather suggests that the world is close to passing climatic tipping points in the Arctic, the Antarctic and elsewhere. Dr Williams facetiously dismissed such concerns: “--- the last time I (looked), the Arctic was still there --- “.  She might have added that the Arctic is warming 3-4 times faster than the global average and that 80 per cent of the Arctic sea ice volume in summer has been lost since 1979, half of it in the last seven years.

On current trends, the Arctic will probably be sea ice-free in summer by 2015 and in winter by 2030. The Greenland ice sheet melt appears to be accelerating exponentially, which if confirmed, may lead to a five metre sea level increase this century. The West Antarctic ice sheet is warming faster than anywhere else on earth. None of this was supposed to happen until post-2100.

These changes may seem remote from Australia, but they have enormous impact on the global climate system, on sea level rise, and thus impact directly upon us.
Science has clearly established human carbon emissions as a prime cause. Despite years of negotiations, nothing has been done to reduce emissions, which are accelerating in line with worst-case scenarios. Despite Mitch Hooke’s boosterism, ‘official’ solutions, such as carbon capture and storage, and clean coal technology, are not working and even if they did, it would require decades for them to take effect, time we no longer have.

Current climate policies, including our own Clean Energy Future package, if fully implemented, will result in 4-6 degrees Celsius mean warming relative to pre-industrial conditions, with the Arctic experiencing 9-12 degrees Celsius regional warming – way beyond the official target of 2 degrees Celsius – worsening an already very dangerous situation.

This would result in a world of one billion people, not the present seven billion, as death and destruction ensue from a combination of heat stress, escalating extreme weather disasters, sea level rise, disease, food and water scarcity with consequent social disorder and conflict. Australia will be severely affected, probably with major population decline, unless emission reductions are accelerated.

Yet notwithstanding the 20 per cent limit on burning the world’s proven fossil-fuel reserves if catastrophic climate change is to be avoided, by 2025, the Australian coal industry is planning to more than double coal exports, and the gas industry to quadruple gas exports, which will make us one of the top five global emitters, exports included.

The Chinese, Indians and other trade partners are in the process of rapidly abandoning a high carbon future.  If our current expansion policies are implemented, it will leave Australia with a stack of stranded assets in mines, ports and railways within a decade, wasting funds which should be spent developing zero-carbon solutions.

This is part one of a two-part analysis. Part two will be published on Monday morning.

Ian Dunlop is a former an international oil, gas and coal industry executive.  He chaired the Australian Coal Association in 1987-88, chaired the Australian Greenhouse Office Experts Group on Emissions Trading from 1998-2000 and was CEO of the Australian Institute of Company Directors from 1997-2001.

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Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/6/21/science-environment/why-coal-has-go#ixzz2XK4UTpOv

Climate change: time for action, at last?

Obama breaks the silence on climate change. Is it the last chance for the frog to jump out of the pot?

by Michael E. Mann

My statement on President Barack Obama's climate plan announced earlier today:

Ultimately, we need a comprehensive energy and climate policy that prices carbon pollution and levels the playing field for renewable sources of energy that are not degrading our climate and planet. But given that we have an intransigent congress (the current House Science committee leadership continues to deny even the existence of human-caused climate change), the president has been forced to turn to executive actions. His call for carbon emission limits on *all* coal-fired power plants, not just newly built plants, is a bold step forward. It will go some way to stemming our growing carbon emissions, and the impact they are having on our climate.

The President's comments about the Keystone XL pipeline are also encouraging. He indicated that he will block the pipeline if it is going to lead to increased carbon emissions. Since all objective analyses indicated that the construction of the pipeline *will* lead to increased carbon emissions (because it will lead to far greater extraction of Canadian tar sands), this should translate to a decision not to move forward on that project.

Finally, the president spelled out promising ways forward to (a) introduce greater incentives for renewable, non-carbon based energy, (b) reduce energy usage/improve energy efficiency, (c) encourage developing nations to meet growing energy demand through renewable energy, and (d) adapt to those climate change impacts which are already locked in and unavoidable.

All in all, it is the most aggressive and promising climate plan to come out of the executive branch in years, and President Obama should be applauded for the bold leadership he has shown in confronting the climate change threat head on.

Support President Obama’s climate action plan here >>

Hansen's dice are rolling

Image from ThreeOak



By Alexander Ac

In a changed world all weather events are created under different conditions than before the Industrial Revolution. A weather that is on steroids, we could say. Or, as climatologist James Hansen calls it, we are "loading the climate dice" towards more extreme climate and weather. Not surprisingly, it is increasingly harder and harder for more and more people to simply "adapt" to weather extremes. Just consider the weather reports from around the planet during the the last few days. They may not by unusual separately, but together they give a picture of quite rapidly destabilizing Holocene climate. The calendar summer of 2013 on the Nothern Hemisphere has just started!

Consider this:

• Arizona Governor declares a state of emergency in Yavapai County due to fast growing forest fire:

• Numerous wildfires are currently spreading also in Colorado and this state already contained its most destructive wildfire in history earlier this year, while the previous one occured in 2012.

• Fires are also raging in Alaska, which recently experienced record temperatures, while California is preparing for the worst fire season in at least 100 years.

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• Record pollution is choking Singapore as a result of forest fires in Indonesia:

• Canadian Alberta is suffering the worst floods in at least 90 years:

• Strong rains caused flash floods in parts of Southwestern France:

• Strong wind and gulf ball sized hail surprized Switzerland:

• Much needed monzoon rains came to India, unfortunataly more intense than usually, already killed about 1000 people and caused a lot of damage:

We really need to listen more carefully to what our planet is telling us. And act accordingly. Now.

(h/t to recent events goes to Fire Earth blog and Desdemona Despair blog)

*Correction: As pointed out by a reader, forest fires in Indonesia are primarily caused by human activity and might NOT necessarily be related to climate change. Even worse, they may have been intentionally started by palm oil companies to grow "biofuels", which are supposed to "offset" fossil fuel emissions. See the "moth effect".